Scenario planning is a way of preparing for the future by exploring several different versions of it rather than using assumptions the future will be based off the past. Instead of one forecast, a small set of plausible narratives are developed about how the world around your organisation might change. Each narrative is based on bespoke uncertainties or important variables to your organisation, things like shifts in regulation, technology, the economy, or your competitive environment and allows us to see how those changes could play out together.

Provides a structured process to engage various contributors Ability to safely capture and test assumptions underpinning strategy Explore external forces shaping the operating environment Understand impacts to customers, shareholders and communities of key drivers Improve resilience and confidence in strategic decisions Create stronger alignment between governance, risk and long-term direction Creates shared understanding amongst critical contributors to strategy development Easily included into existing standard business processes

Scenario planning is used by organisations across almost every sector from small community organisations to large, listed companies, government agencies, infrastructure providers, industry groups and global corporations. It tends to be most valuable when ·       The future feels genuinely uncertain and the stakes of getting it wrong are high ·       Your organisation is making decisions today that will shape the next five to fifteen years and beyond ·       You're entering a new market, facing a major transition, or dealing with rapid change in your industry ·       The problem your organisation is facing does not have a clear answer and you need a method to bring related stakeholders together to explore the assumptions, conditions and outcomes of the future may bring ·       Your board or leadership team holds a wide range of views and needs a structured way to process the different perspectives Size doesn't determine whether scenario planning is useful the nature of the decisions you're making does. A small not-for-profit planning a new service model faces the same fundamental challenge as a large listed company entering a new market: how do you make a good decision when the future is unclear? The goal isn't to predict what will happen. It's to make sure your organisation is ready for a range of possibilities, not just the one you're hoping for.

Scenario planning is typically run as a facilitated process, bringing together people who need to make or advise on important decisions. It usually unfolds in stages. First, the group identifies key uncertainties facing the organisation. These are the things that are both highly uncertain and highly important, not everything, just the factors that would most change the picture if they shifted. From there, a small number of distinct, and specific to your the organisation in focus, scenarios are developed, usually two to four. Each one is a coherent story about how the future might unfold, different enough from the others to genuinely challenge your assumptions. The group then uses those scenarios to test their strategy and plans. The questions asked are practical ones: Does our current strategy hold up in each of these futures? Where are we exposed? What opportunities might we be missing? What would we do differently if we knew this future was coming? The output isn't a report that sits on a shelf. It can be a truly immersive experience.  Regardless of the preferred output format, it provokes rich strategic discussion and is easily incorporated into established planning processes. It creates a richer, shared understanding across your leadership team of what you're planning for, why, and what you'd do if things don't go as expected. Many organisations find the conversation itself is as valuable as any document it produces.

Scenarios are usually a bespoke creation for a specific organisation.   The facilitated process allows the most relevant key drivers of change to be selected for the organisation’s specific needs.    The process of generating the scenarios is a critical contributor the value gained by the team, as it is here where pivotal insights often arise, prompted by exploring of strategic assumptions.